[ti:UN: World Population Expected to Reach 10.3 Billion in 2080s]
[al:As It Is]
[ar:VOA]
[dt:2024-07-21]
[by:www.voase.cn]
[00:00.00]The United Nations is predicting the world's population will reach 10.3 billion in the 2080s.
[00:11.99]The prediction appears in a new U.N. report. 
[00:16.74]The report also suggests that the population will then slightly decrease to about 10.2 billion by the end of the century.
[00:29.05]John Wilmoth is head of the U.N. Population Division, which prepared the report. 
[00:37.68]He told The Associated Press (AP) that there is a high probability that the world's population will reach its height, or peak, within the current century.
[00:53.82]He said the probability of that happening is about 80 percent. 
[00:59.52]Wilmoth described that estimate as "a major change" compared to predictions from 10 years ago.
[01:09.36]At that time, the estimated probability was about 30 percent.
[01:16.01]U.N. Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development Navid Hanif recently spoke about the report at a briefing. 
[01:28.35]He said the expectation that the world's population in 2100 will be lower than previously thought has "important policy implications for the sustainability of our planet."
[01:45.53]The world's population has continued to grow during the past 75 years, from an estimated 2.6 billion in 1950 to 8 billion in November 2022.
[02:02.97]Since then, it has increased about 2.5 percent to 8.2 billion.
[02:11.48]The report notes the population has already peaked in 63 countries and territories. 
[02:20.84]These include China, Germany, Japan and Russia. Within this grouping, the total population is estimated to drop 14 percent over the next 30 years.
[02:38.40]In another 48 countries and territories, the population is predicted to peak between 2025 and 2054. 
[02:50.71]Those countries include Brazil, Iran, Turkey and Vietnam.
[02:57.73]For the remaining 126 countries and territories, the population is expected to increase through 2054.
[03:09.62]The countries in this grouping include the United States, India, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan. 
[03:19.82]The report said these areas would see their populations peak in the second half of the century or later.
[03:29.87]For nine of these nations, the U.N. estimates the populations will double between 2024 and 2054.
[03:41.59]Wilmoth said these differences are notable.
[03:46.08]But he said, "it's important to understand that all populations are following a similar path."
[03:55.26]The U.N. report suggests the earlier population peak is predicted for several reasons. 
[04:03.76]These include lower fertility levels in some of the world's largest countries, especially China.
[04:12.47]Estimates for China suggest the country's population will drop sharply, from 1.4 billion in 2024 to 633 million in 2100.
[04:29.98]The report noted that worldwide, women are having an average of one less child than they did in 1990.
[04:41.01]In addition, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1 in over half of all countries and territories. 
[04:53.18]This is a level experts have identified as being necessary for a country's population to keep its size without migration.
[05:05.46]Wilmoth said the report shows that nearly 20 percent of the world has "ultra-low" fertility, with women having fewer than 1.5 live births. 
[05:21.10]In China, the current number is about one birth per woman.
[05:26.48]I'm Bryan Lynn.